When I first heard news about swine flu, I asked my girlfriend, a medical student, if I should be worried. Having just returned from Uganda where she had worked in a hospital where a resident on call could check in over 60 patients in an evening only to see all but a handful pass away before the end of that call shift, she responded with a simple, "No." Seeking a second opinion, and still worried, I found this blog, written by a Columbia University virologist. He argues that the seasonality of flu transmission will reduce the spread of infection in the northern hemisphere while tending to exacerbate it in the southern over the next few months. Apparently, flu is much harder to transmit in the hot weather of summer, creating, perhaps, the first summer where New Yorkers can be thankful for their steam bath of a city. From the blog:
Q: Should this be considered a prime candidate for next winters flu season? A: It depends on what happens in the southern hemisphere. In the next week or two we will know whether A/California/07/2009 (H1N1) spreads in the lower half of the globe and causes epidemics of disease. If it does, then it is highly likely that the virus will return here in the fall. If the virus fails to spread, then everyone can go back to worrying about H5N1.
Luckily for us, if H1N1 becomes a deadly epidemic in the southern hemisphere, we may have just enough time to produce a working vaccine by the time it attacks the northern hemisphere in force as temperatures drop. So I'm less worried now than I was, but still feel the urge to make swine flu jokes about once an hour -- a real indication of anxiety.
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