Thursday, April 30, 2009
Measuring efficiency in the NL, again
The motion chart/data set I've been working on is now at steady-state. I'll try to update this every Monday, not because you care, but because I'm curious about what this will look like. There are a lot of ways to figure out how well a team ought to be doing, and this method is by no means as straightforward as the simple Pythagorean theorem method based on runs scored versus runs allowed. But it does make for some very pretty pictures, and some estimates of losses due to offense versus pitching/defense (assuming all teams' have around the same variance in runs scored from game to game). There's a walkthrough in the second tab that takes you through some potentially interesting views of the data.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Swine flu -- now and later
When I first heard news about swine flu, I asked my girlfriend, a medical student, if I should be worried. Having just returned from Uganda where she had worked in a hospital where a resident on call could check in over 60 patients in an evening only to see all but a handful pass away before the end of that call shift, she responded with a simple, "No." Seeking a second opinion, and still worried, I found this blog, written by a Columbia University virologist. He argues that the seasonality of flu transmission will reduce the spread of infection in the northern hemisphere while tending to exacerbate it in the southern over the next few months. Apparently, flu is much harder to transmit in the hot weather of summer, creating, perhaps, the first summer where New Yorkers can be thankful for their steam bath of a city. From the blog:
Q: Should this be considered a prime candidate for next winters flu season? A: It depends on what happens in the southern hemisphere. In the next week or two we will know whether A/California/07/2009 (H1N1) spreads in the lower half of the globe and causes epidemics of disease. If it does, then it is highly likely that the virus will return here in the fall. If the virus fails to spread, then everyone can go back to worrying about H5N1.
Luckily for us, if H1N1 becomes a deadly epidemic in the southern hemisphere, we may have just enough time to produce a working vaccine by the time it attacks the northern hemisphere in force as temperatures drop. So I'm less worried now than I was, but still feel the urge to make swine flu jokes about once an hour -- a real indication of anxiety.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Banks complain that stress test is too fair
Regulators have told Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. that the banks may need to raise more capital based on early results of the government's so-called stress tests of lenders, according to people familiar with the situation.
The capital shortfall amounts to billions of dollars at Bank of America, based in Charlotte, N.C., people familiar with the bank said.
Executives at both banks are objecting to the preliminary findings, which emerged from the government's scrutiny of 19 large financial institutions. The two banks are planning to respond with detailed rebuttals, these people said, with Bank of America's appeal expected ...
via online.wsj.com
This article is behind a subscription wall, but I get the print version of the WSJ at school, so I got to read these final three paragraphs, true journalistic gems that they are:
One question is how the government is projecting banks' revenue streams through 2010. Some bankers are optimistic that the Fed will use their first-quarter numbers to predict their performance for teh enxt two years.
That could inflate the banks' earning potentials--and thus their capital cushions--because many of the companies had strong first-quarter performances.
Analysts, investors and most executives say those results probably aren't sustainable.
Shorter WSJ: Banks want everyone to believe they can sustain first quarter's profitability; everyone thinks that's bullshit. Given that regulators believe Citi and BofA to be undercapitalized by billions of dollars, it's unlikely that they're projecting forward the banks anomalous first quarter results, which are highly suspect as I've written about earlier. So that puts the government in agreement with, apparently, everyone else.
If only there were a "too big to lie about financial performance" corollary to the "too big to fail" maxim. I would also settle for "too big to complain about executive pay caps after destroying the economy." Come on guys, be the bigger banks.
Monday, April 27, 2009
NL Batting Efficiency - 4/27/09, Take 2
Well, after struggling to get this embedded into the post, I've given up (Verifiable -- way easier than Google to embed into Posterous, but sadly lacking a motion chart). Here's a link to a Google motion chart showing NL batting efficiency, now normalized by the number of games each team has played. As you can see, the Mets are not doing so hot. While their efficiency has increased, that's due to their getting fewer hits while scoring the same number of runs -- not the way you want to go. And their winning percentage deteriorated. Plotting runs per game on the x-axis and winning percentage on the y-axis provides a neat picture of how well teams are actually turning offense into wins.You can watch the Mets drop like a rock -- scoring the same number of runs, but getting fewer wins thanks to some truly execrable starting pitching (see: Perez, Oliver).
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Untitled
Wired loves to come up with cool ways of graphically representing data and relationships. I usually like them. But this "Enigmatrix" is bizarre.
- Game theory and Math are unconnected. Huh? Game theory is math. What do you think John Nash was scribbling on all those windows?
- Dungeons & Dragons does not connect to Plot, but Magic: The Gathering does. WTF is the plot of Magic: The Gathering? It's a money-sink that increases your social seclusion in junior high. What's the plot of Dungeons & Dragons? Ask my elven fighter-mage on a quest to restore his homeland.
- The Magic node connects to the Code node. I don't know anything about writing code or magic tricks, but I use Windows -- nothing magical about it.
- Jeopardy is in a connecting chain to Plot with Propaganda. Alex Trebek -- the Joseph Goebbels of game shows.
- Settlers of Cataan is not the central node.
Pour one out for Chrysler
Fiat denied any plans to invest directly into Chrysler, the heavily indebted US carmaker, or fund it in the future as it reported a wider-than-expected first-quarter loss.
via ft.com
Well, it was nice knowing you, Chrysler. I have fond memories of riding to Little League games in my parents' used Town & Country. That was a comfortable minivan.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
The first time was for information. The next 182 times, not so much.
WASHINGTON — The Bush administration applied relentless pressure on interrogators to use harsh methods on detainees in part to find evidence of cooperation between al Qaida and the late Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein's regime, according to a former senior U.S. intelligence official and a former Army psychiatrist.
via mcclatchydc.com
Remember how I was curious about how the need for 183 and 83 waterboarding sessions on two prisoners lined up with a former agent's claim that Abu Zubaydah gave everything up after his first session? Seems that those next 82 times in Zubaydah's case were not for information, but to get him to say that Al Qaedah had ties with Iraq so that we could invade. This is exactly analogous with how torture is generally used by oppressive regimes throughout history -- not to gather reliable information, but to force false confessions.
I guess that explains it.
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